Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 9% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 0.9 | 15.4% | 12 | 0.09% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.1 | 19.2% | 15 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 11.5% | 9 | 0.07% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.7 | 7.7% | 6 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.1 | 10.3% | 8 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.7 | 6.4% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.7 | 20.5% | 16 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 6 | 7.4 | 100% | 78 | 0.07% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | 29986 | 228145 | 709 | 183 | 91 |
| Mar 19 | 29986 | 228320 | 709 | 183 | 78 |
| Mar 20 | 29992 | 228439 | 710 | 183 | 75 |
| Mar 21 | 30003 | 228616 | 711 | 183 | 76 |
| Mar 22 | 30007 | 228828 | 711 | 183 | 79 |
| Mar 23 | 30016 | 229007 | 712 | 183 | 85 |
| Mar 24 | 30022 | 229091 | 712 | 183 | 78 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | 18576 | 151936 | 693 | 179 | 34 |
| Mar 19 | 18578 | 152043 | 693 | 179 | 31 |
| Mar 20 | 18579 | 152111 | 693 | 179 | 30 |
| Mar 21 | 18582 | 152192 | 693 | 179 | 26 |
| Mar 22 | 18589 | 152296 | 694 | 179 | 31 |
| Mar 23 | 18596 | 152484 | 694 | 179 | 38 |
| Mar 24 | 18597 | 152545 | 694 | 179 | 36 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.6% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.3 | 5.6% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.7 | 16.7% | 6 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.0 | 27.8% | 10 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.6 | 11.1% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.1 | 8.3% | 3 | 0.03% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 13.9% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 11.1% | 4 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 1 | 3.4 | 100% | 36 | 0.06% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | 13416 | 89077 | 539 | 141 | 40 |
| Mar 19 | 13418 | 89125 | 540 | 141 | 34 |
| Mar 20 | 13421 | 89163 | 540 | 141 | 29 |
| Mar 21 | 13423 | 89235 | 540 | 141 | 29 |
| Mar 22 | 13425 | 89300 | 540 | 141 | 29 |
| Mar 23 | 13425 | 89374 | 540 | 141 | 28 |
| Mar 24 | 13427 | 89413 | 540 | 141 | 23 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.0 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.0 | 13% | 3 | 0.06% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 4.3% | 1 | 0.02% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.6 | 26.1% | 6 | 0.09% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.6 | 21.7% | 5 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 21.7% | 5 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 2 | 2.0 | 100% | 23 | 0.05% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | 34500 | 306001 | 1018 | 179 | 167 |
| Mar 19 | 34504 | 306163 | 1018 | 179 | 136 |
| Mar 20 | 34520 | 306297 | 1018 | 179 | 123 |
| Mar 21 | 34542 | 306567 | 1019 | 179 | 127 |
| Mar 22 | 34553 | 306925 | 1020 | 179 | 125 |
| Mar 23 | 34567 | 307226 | 1021 | 179 | 136 |
| Mar 24 | 34589 | 307403 | 1022 | 179 | 140 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 2.4 | 17.1% | 24 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 2.3 | 13.6% | 19 | 0.11% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 2.6 | 15% | 21 | 0.1% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.4 | 17.1% | 24 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.7 | 12.1% | 17 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.9 | 12.1% | 17 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.6 | 5% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.1 | 7.9% | 11 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 22 | 15.0 | 100% | 140 | 0.12% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | 123289 | 2393420 | 2532 | 502 | 648 |
| Mar 19 | 123349 | 2394725 | 2533 | 502 | 629 |
| Mar 20 | 123381 | 2395691 | 2533 | 502 | 583 |
| Mar 21 | 123449 | 2397534 | 2534 | 502 | 588 |
| Mar 22 | 123547 | 2400374 | 2534 | 502 | 643 |
| Mar 23 | 123650 | 2402541 | 2534 | 502 | 739 |
| Mar 24 | 123753 | 2404269 | 2534 | 502 | 775 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 17 | 10.7 | 15% | 116 | 0.19% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 8.4 | 11.6% | 90 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 22 | 13.9 | 15.6% | 121 | 0.12% |
| 30-39 | 19 | 12.9 | 17.5% | 136 | 0.18% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 9.1 | 13.8% | 107 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 7.1 | 9.7% | 75 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 5.9 | 7.4% | 57 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | 6 | 6.9 | 9.2% | 71 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 103 | 75.1 | 100% | 775 | 0.14% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18 | 1580607 | 13928452 | 63137 | 14195 | 4125 |
| Mar 19 | 1580864 | 13936905 | 63147 | 14198 | 3856 |
| Mar 20 | 1581083 | 13943279 | 63156 | 14200 | 3578 |
| Mar 21 | 1581480 | 13955551 | 63174 | 14201 | 3568 |
| Mar 22 | 1581921 | 13972304 | 63186 | 14201 | 3736 |
| Mar 23 | 1582369 | 13986542 | 63206 | 14201 | 4125 |
| Mar 24 | 1582815 | 13994916 | 63216 | 14201 | 4050 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 45 | 40.1 | 11.2% | 452 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 45 | 38.7 | 10.7% | 433 | 0.06% |
| 20-29 | 77 | 58.0 | 14.5% | 588 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 84 | 57.6 | 16.1% | 654 | 0.09% |
| 40-49 | 53 | 43.1 | 11.9% | 480 | 0.07% |
| 50-59 | 57 | 48.1 | 12.7% | 516 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 33 | 37.3 | 10.5% | 426 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 52 | 43.1 | 12.3% | 497 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 446 | 366.4 | 100% | 4050 | 0.07% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.3 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2022-04-18 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 14066"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges